ENSO (El-Niño Southern Oscillation) AND CONSUMER PRICES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17501/2357268X.2025.10103Keywords:
ENSO, consumer prices, consumer food prices, inflation, Southeast AsiaAbstract
ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) affects agricultural productivity by altering rainfall patterns and temperatures, which subsequently influence agricultural prices and may even trigger the rise of consumer prices. This study aims to examine the correlation of ENSO as represented by Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and rainfall, as well as to examine the differences in consumer prices across different ENSO events, i.e., El Niño and La Niña, in Southeast Asian countries. We utilized rainfall data from the World Bank, ONI from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and consumer price index data (both general and food) from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Spearman’s rank correlation and the Mann-Whitney U test are used in this study. The results indicate Indonesia is the most affected country by ENSO, showing the strongest correlation (-0.7631) between ONI and rainfall, where El Niño reduces rainfall and La Niña otherwise. Additionally, consumer prices tend to differ noticeably between El Niño and when it does not happen. Timor Leste shows the largest gap (32.74), suggesting that strong El Niño are often associated with higher consumer prices. Similarly, the food prices in Lao PDR records the widest difference (61.60). In contrast, most countries do not show meaningful changes during La Niña. The results indicate that food prices react more strongly to El Niño than general prices which likely linked to lower agricultural yield, disruptions in supply chains, and greater price volatility in main food commodities. The need to strengthen climate-responsive food security policies are essential like prioritizing early warning system to integrate climate forecasts with agricultural planning, alongside the enhancement of food reserves and social protection as well to build resilience.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Panca Rahadi Mulyo, Arini Wahyu Utami, Irham Irham
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
